As the 2025 holiday season approaches, NielsenIQ (NIQ) reveals that Canadian shoppers are navigating economic uncertainty with pragmatic spending choices. The company’s latest Consumer Outlook: Guide to 2026 report highlights a shift toward value-driven decisions—favoring affordability and relevance over patriotic purchasing.

Inflation Fatigue Drives Smarter Spending

While inflation across fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) stabilized between 2.1% and 3.1% from December 2024 to August 2025, Canadians continue to feel the pinch. Consumer confidence rose to 60.3 points in September, yet over one-third (36%) feel financially worse off.

Rather than cutting back entirely, consumers are adapting—49% plan to stock up on sale items, while 42% say their spending will focus only on essentials.

Patriotism Yields to Practicality

Support for homegrown products remains strong, but the “Made in Canada” sentiment is softening as price sensitivity takes precedence. “Canadian Loyalists” dropped to 14%—down three points since early 2025—while avoidance of U.S. brands declined by seven points to 30%.

Although Canadian-made goods still outperform U.S. products (+5.3% vs. –7.9% YTD), the performance gap is narrowing as consumers weigh quality against price.

Retailers Pivot to Value and Convenience

In response, retailers are expanding private labels and discount offerings to meet evolving expectations. Over 100 new discount stores have opened nationwide in the past two years, signaling a decisive shift toward affordability.

Smaller, agile brands now contribute 38% of FMCG dollar growth, while online FMCG sales surpassed 10%—a five-point rise in two years—driven by digital innovations that streamline shopping and save time.

“As the holidays approach, Canadians are redefining celebration—choosing smarter spending over splurging and supporting local when it aligns with value,” said Mike Ljubicic, Managing Director, Canada, NielsenIQ. “Retailer success will depend on making products affordable, accessible, and relevant to consumers’ lives.”

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