After a surprisingly resilient 2025, the global consumer technology and durable goods market is heading into a holding pattern. According to NielsenIQ’s (NIQ) 2026 Consumer Tech & Durable Goods (T&D) Outlook, released in collaboration with the Consumer Technology Association (CTA), worldwide sales are expected to level off in 2026, signaling a transition from post-inflation recovery to a more selective, value-driven growth phase.

The headline numbers tell a story of moderation. The sector is on track to close 2025 at roughly $1.3 trillion, up 3% year over year, but 2026 sales are projected to dip slightly by 0.4%. Yet beneath that near-flat global average lies a far more uneven—and strategically important—set of regional and category dynamics.

For brands, retailers, and manufacturers, the message is clear: growth isn’t disappearing, but it’s fragmenting.

A stable global market with sharply different regional outcomes

While global sales appear flat on paper, NIQ’s data shows that regional performance in 2026 will vary widely.

• Eastern Europe is projected to lead growth at +5%, followed by Western Europe and the Middle East & Africa at +3%, and Latin America at +2%.

• North America is expected to remain largely stable, reflecting a mature market where replacement cycles—not expansion—drive demand.

• Asia-Pacific, however, is forecast to decline 3% overall, weighed down by China’s projected -5% contraction.

China’s slowdown is particularly notable given its recent strength. NIQ attributes much of the decline to elevated baselines created by government trade-in incentives, which pulled forward demand in prior years. As those programs normalize, growth comparisons become tougher—even as underlying consumer demand remains intact.

“In 2025, global Consumer Tech & Durable Goods purchases grew by a solid 3%,” said Julian Baldwin, President of Tech & Durables at NIQ. “Growth is expected to slow in 2026, but most regions should remain stable or see modest gains. The exception is China, where elevated baselines from recent trade-in policies will weigh on performance.”

Value over volume defines the next phase

Across regions, one theme cuts through the data: consumers remain cautious and value-driven.

Even as inflation eases in many markets, shoppers are prioritizing products that clearly justify their price—whether through better performance, convenience, energy efficiency, durability, or long-term cost savings. Incremental upgrades or vague “smart” features are no longer enough.

This shift puts pressure on brands to make product benefits highly visible and immediately relevant at the point of decision, especially as discretionary budgets remain constrained.

The implication for marketers is significant. Positioning around price alone isn’t sufficient, but neither is premiumization without proof. The winners in 2026 will be those that align pricing, innovation, and experience with local expectations and category-specific needs.

Category outlook: small appliances and IT show resilience

From a sector perspective, NIQ expects uneven performance across product categories:

• Small Domestic Appliances (SDA) are forecast to continue growing, supported by demand for convenience, efficiency, and lifestyle upgrades.

• IT & Office equipment should see modest gains, helped by delayed replacement cycles and renewed interest in higher-performance devices.

• Major Domestic Appliances are expected to remain broadly stable, reflecting saturation in mature markets.

• Telecom and Consumer Electronics are projected to experience slight declines, as smartphone and TV markets remain highly competitive and replacement-driven.

That said, stability doesn’t mean stagnation. Even in slower categories, specific innovation-led subsegments are outperforming, particularly where clear use cases exist.

Replacement cycles and premium features fuel selective demand

NIQ’s outlook suggests that replacement demand—rather than first-time purchases—will be a key growth lever in 2026. PCs and smartphones, in particular, are entering refresh cycles after years of delayed upgrades.

What’s different this time is the nature of the upgrade. Consumers are showing willingness to pay more for features they can clearly understand and use. Examples include:

• AI-native PCs, positioned around productivity, battery optimization, and on-device intelligence

• Mini LED and OLED TVs, benefiting from better picture quality and energy efficiency

• Built-in and smart home appliances, which promise long-term convenience rather than novelty

Televisions, in particular, are expected to get a demand lift from the 2026 World Cup, a familiar but still powerful catalyst for premium TV upgrades. Meanwhile, open-ear headsets continue to gain traction, carving out a differentiated position in the crowded audio market.

Across categories, NIQ notes that AI-enabled features offer real premiumization potential—but only when the benefits are explicit. Abstract promises of “AI-powered” performance are less persuasive than tangible improvements tied to everyday use.

AI as a differentiator, not a default

The report reinforces a growing industry reality: AI alone doesn’t sell products—use cases do.

“Consumers remain value-driven but are prepared to spend where they see compelling product features,” said Steve Koenig, Vice President of Research at CTA. “Built-in Artificial Intelligence continues to present strong opportunity as a product differentiator, but adoption will depend on clear use cases that illustrate direct benefits and ROI.”

This distinction matters as AI becomes more ubiquitous across consumer tech. As more devices include some form of AI by default, differentiation will shift from presence to performance—and from marketing claims to measurable outcomes.

Trade, policy, and competitive pressure loom large

Beyond consumer behavior, NIQ highlights external risks that could reshape the market trajectory in 2026.

Tariffs and trade policy remain key variables, particularly in the U.S., while China’s evolving trade-in programs continue to influence demand patterns. At the same time, Chinese brands are expanding aggressively into new markets, intensifying competition on price and accelerating global AI adoption through more affordable devices.

For established players, this raises strategic questions around positioning, margin protection, and local relevance—especially in emerging markets where accessibility often outweighs brand legacy.

What this means for brands and retailers

The 2026 outlook suggests a market that rewards precision over scale. Broad-based recovery is no longer the primary growth driver. Instead, success will hinge on:

• Targeting high-potential regions by both volume and value

• Aligning innovation with local consumer expectations

• Making product benefits clear, visible, and defensible

• Preparing for continued volatility from policy and supply chain shifts

In a flat global market, share gains will come at someone else’s expense. The brands that adapt fastest to regional nuance—and communicate value most effectively—are likely to be the ones still growing.

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