Retail promotions often force brands to balance customer engagement with financial risk. Forme® Science is testing a different approach. The wearable technology company has partnered with PlayAbly and prediction market platform Kalshi to launch what the companies describe as the first e-commerce promotion backed by a regulated prediction market, allowing customers to receive a full refund if Team USA reaches the 2026 World Cup Final.

As brands compete for consumer attention during major global sporting events, promotional campaigns have become increasingly creative—but also more expensive. Offering substantial rewards tied to unpredictable outcomes can generate customer interest, yet it also exposes businesses to significant financial liabilities if those promotions succeed.

Forme® Science believes regulated prediction markets may offer a solution.

The smart posture and recovery wearables company announced a promotional campaign that uses prediction market infrastructure to hedge the financial risk associated with a sports-based customer offer. Through June 30, shoppers purchasing products from Forme's online store using the promotional code TEAMUSA will receive a full refund—excluding taxes and shipping—if Team USA advances to the 2026 World Cup Final.

The initiative brings together three companies with distinct roles. Forme® provides the consumer-facing campaign, PlayAbly designed and manages the promotional framework, and Kalshi supplies the regulated prediction market infrastructure that enables the company to offset the financial exposure associated with the offer.

While promotions tied to sporting events are common, most brands either self-insure the financial risk or purchase specialized promotional insurance. Forme's campaign introduces another option by leveraging prediction markets as a business risk-management tool rather than solely as a financial trading platform.

Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts based on the likelihood of future events. Traditionally associated with forecasting elections, economic indicators, and major sporting events, these markets are increasingly being explored for commercial applications where uncertain outcomes create measurable business risk.

According to Forme®, the campaign represents the first known instance of an e-commerce retailer using this model to structure a consumer promotion.

The announcement also highlights a broader evolution in promotional marketing. Instead of limiting campaigns because of uncertain financial exposure, brands may increasingly explore financial instruments capable of balancing promotional creativity with predictable risk management.

PlayAbly, the promotions platform behind the initiative, positions the model as a way to make shopping more interactive by connecting purchasing decisions with major cultural moments. Rather than offering traditional discounts, brands can design campaigns around live events while maintaining greater financial certainty through hedging mechanisms.

For marketers, this represents a potential expansion of the promotional technology stack. Marketing teams have historically relied on customer data platforms, loyalty programs, personalization engines, and marketing automation software to improve engagement. Financial infrastructure capable of supporting event-driven campaigns could become another emerging component of enterprise marketing technology.

The strategy may be particularly attractive during globally watched events such as the FIFA World Cup, the Olympic Games, or championship tournaments where brands seek to capitalize on heightened consumer attention without assuming unlimited promotional costs.

Kalshi, which operates a regulated prediction market, views the partnership as an example of how prediction markets can extend beyond investment products into enterprise business infrastructure. Rather than serving only traders, regulated event markets may increasingly support commercial decision-making, budgeting, inventory planning, and promotional campaign management.

Beyond the campaign itself, Forme continues expanding its position within the connected health and wearable technology market. The company develops patented intelligent posture and recovery wearables designed to improve musculoskeletal health, athletic performance, and recovery. Its products are used by professional athletes, healthcare professionals, and sports organizations, including its role as the Official Posture & Recovery Partner of the MLB Players Association.

The campaign also reflects a growing convergence between financial technology and marketing technology. Enterprise marketing increasingly incorporates AI-driven personalization, customer analytics, dynamic pricing, and real-time decision engines. Adding financial risk management capabilities to promotional campaigns represents another example of how MarTech continues to evolve beyond communications into broader business operations.

Large enterprise technology providers such as Google, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Adobe have invested heavily in AI-powered marketing platforms capable of optimizing customer journeys and campaign performance. The emergence of financial infrastructure supporting promotional innovation may complement these ecosystems by enabling marketers to execute more ambitious customer engagement initiatives while maintaining budget predictability.

Industry analysts continue to identify customer experience as a primary competitive differentiator. According to Gartner, organizations increasingly invest in technologies that improve customer engagement while delivering measurable business outcomes. Meanwhile, McKinsey & Company has reported that companies excelling at customer experience can achieve faster revenue growth and stronger customer loyalty than industry peers.

Although prediction-market-backed promotions remain in their early stages, the Forme–PlayAbly–Kalshi collaboration illustrates how financial technology may begin influencing mainstream marketing operations. If successful, similar models could expand into retail, travel, entertainment, hospitality, and consumer packaged goods, enabling brands to create high-profile promotional campaigns without assuming unlimited financial exposure.

The campaign signals that prediction markets may be evolving into practical enterprise infrastructure—opening new possibilities for marketers seeking to combine customer engagement, financial innovation, and intelligent risk management.

Market Landscape

The convergence of MarTech and FinTech is creating new opportunities for enterprise marketers. AI-powered personalization, customer data platforms, and predictive analytics already help brands optimize campaigns in real time. Now, financial technologies such as regulated prediction markets are emerging as tools for managing promotional risk. Gartner continues to identify customer experience as a leading business priority, while McKinsey & Company reports that organizations delivering personalized customer experiences can outperform competitors in revenue growth. As enterprises seek innovative ways to engage consumers during major cultural events, financial risk-management infrastructure could become an increasingly valuable addition to modern marketing technology stacks.

Top Insights

• Forme® Science has introduced what it describes as the first e-commerce promotion hedged through a regulated prediction market, combining retail marketing with financial risk management.
• The campaign integrates Forme®, PlayAbly, and Kalshi to enable a World Cup-themed cashback promotion while limiting financial exposure through prediction market infrastructure.
• The initiative demonstrates how prediction markets may evolve from trading platforms into enterprise business tools supporting promotional marketing, budgeting, and campaign innovation.
• Retail marketers could benefit from new approaches that enable large-scale event-driven promotions without relying solely on insurance or assuming unlimited promotional costs.
• The collaboration highlights growing convergence between marketing technology, financial technology, and customer engagement platforms as enterprises modernize digital commerce strategies.

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