Retail foot traffic on Black Friday slipped slightly this year, but the broader story is far more upbeat. Sensormatic Solutions, the retail analytics arm of Johnson Controls, released its first look at 2025 U.S. in-store activity, and the numbers confirm a pattern retailers have hoped to see: steady recovery heading into the peak holiday stretch.

According to ShopperTrak Analytics—which measures more than 40 billion global store visits annually—U.S. Black Friday traffic fell 2.1% compared to 2024. Yet the dip matches 2025’s year-to-date trend of -2.2%, suggesting the industry remains stable rather than slipping further. And when compared to the previous Friday, Nov. 21, traffic surged an impressive 248.9%, proving Black Friday still has gravity.

Grant Gustafson, head of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic Solutions, noted that the second half of 2025 has shown consistent improvement. Back-to-school season kicked off the momentum, and the strong Black Friday lift signals that consumers are still willing to shop in person—especially when high-impact discounts hit.

Afternoon Rush Still Reigns

Some shopping behaviors don’t change. Once again, early afternoon remained the prime browsing window. Traffic peaked between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m., with 3 p.m. standing as the single busiest hour for retailers nationwide. Even as online shopping expands, Black Friday continues to drive reliable in-store surges during predictable time blocks.

A Longer, Stronger Holiday Season Ahead

While Black Friday is expected to retain its title as the busiest shopping day of 2025, the real volume may arrive later. Sensormatic predicts that the final days before Christmas will generate the highest cumulative traffic, especially with the holiday landing on a Thursday for the first time in more than a decade. That timing could stretch the shopping rush across the entire preceding week rather than concentrating it into a long weekend.

Gustafson emphasized the long-term benefits retailers can gain from strong holiday engagement. In 2024, 77% of retailers who outperformed in traffic during the season continued to outperform through mid-2025. The implication is clear: successful holiday experiences build loyalty and carry measurable impact far beyond December.

Why It Matters

The mild year-over-year decline doesn’t indicate weakening consumer demand. Instead, it reflects a stabilizing retail environment shaped by hybrid shopping habits, smarter discounting strategies, and more targeted in-store visits. With major chains leaning heavily on analytics to fine-tune staffing, inventory, and store layouts, the slightest traffic shift can inform months of planning.

Sensormatic's early read positions the 2025 season as both steady and potentially extended—good news for retailers chasing conversion, loyalty, and momentum heading into 2026.