• Strong discounts—as high as 30% off listed price—will drive shoppers to “trade up” in categories such as electronics, appliances and sporting goods, contributing over $2 billion in incremental spend this season

• The 2024 holiday season is expected to be the most mobile of all time, with a record $128.1 billion spent through mobile devices at 53.2% share over desktop, while also propelling usage of Buy Now, Pay Later services

• Consumers will discover and research products in new ways this season, with influencers driving people to shop 10 times more compared to social media overall and generative AI-powered chat bots seeing a 100% increase in traffic to retail sites

Adobe has released its forecast for the 2024 U.S. holiday shopping season, projecting a remarkable $240.8 billion in online sales from November 1 to December 31. This anticipated growth of 8.4% year-over-year (YoY) highlights significant trends in consumer behavior, mobile shopping, and the influence of social media on purchasing decisions.

Record E-commerce Spend in the U.S.

• Total Online Sales: Expected to reach $240.8 billion, a growth from $221.8 billion in 2023.
• Mobile Shopping: Predicted to account for $128.1 billion (53.2% of total online sales), growing 12.8% YoY.
• Cyber Week Sales: Projected at $40.6 billion, with Cyber Monday as the biggest shopping day at $13.2 billion.

Price Sensitivity and Strong Discounts

• Major Discounts: Retailers are expected to offer discounts up to 30% off.
• Top Categories for Discounts:
  • Electronics: 30% off
  • Toys: 27% off
  • TVs: 24% off
  • Sporting Goods: 20% off

These competitive pricing strategies are designed to attract price-sensitive consumers who have become accustomed to seeking out value after a period of persistent inflation.

Shoppers “Trading Up”

• Consumers are anticipated to shift back toward more expensive goods, with a 19% increase in the share of high-priced items compared to previous months.
• Significant increases are expected in:
  • Sporting Goods: 76% increase in high-priced items.
  • Electronics: 58% increase.
  • Appliances: 40% increase.

Best Times to Shop

• Thanksgiving Day: Best for toys, appliances, furniture, and sporting goods.
• Black Friday: Deepest discounts on TVs.
• Cyber Monday: Ideal for electronics and apparel.

Early discounts will begin mid-October, ramping up through November and lingering into December.

Influencer Impact on Shopping Behavior

Influencers are increasingly driving consumer purchases, converting shoppers 10 times more effectively than social media. Adobe's survey indicates 37% of Gen Z respondents have bought products based on influencer recommendations.

Additional Insights

• Top Sellers: Expect high demand for popular toys, gaming consoles, and electronic devices.
• Categories Driving Growth: Electronics, apparel, and furniture are leading e-commerce categories.
• Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL): Anticipated to drive $18.5 billion in online spend, with Cyber Monday projected to be the largest day for BNPL.

The 2024 holiday shopping season is set to break records, driven by strong discounts, mobile shopping trends, and the influential power of social media. As consumers navigate this season, they will enjoy significant savings while retailers adapt to changing shopping behaviors and preferences.